Polysilicon shortage will animate thin film solar technology market
In 2005, a shortfall of 5,000 metric tonnes (MT) of polysilicon used for making solar cells grew to 21,000 in 2006 and will mushroom to 71,000 MT in 2010, according to the report: Opportunities in The Solar Cell Market For Thin Film Technology, recently published by The Information Network.
"Polysilicon shortages are at a critical level, despite capacity ramps by traditional suppliers such as Hemlock, Wacker, and REC and emerging companies in China," noted Dr. Castellano, President of The Information Network. "We project a shortfall of 71,000 MT of polysilicon in 2010, and that includes share gains by thin film solar cell manufacturers to 19% of production in 2010 from only 7.5% in 2006."
The report projects solar power production of 11 GW (gigawatts) in 2010, up from 744 MW (megawatts) in 2003, a compound annual growth rate of 47%, more than double the growth rate of IC technology which competes for the scarce polysilicon.
"The industry is at a critical juncture, and substrate utilization other than polysilicon will need to be expanded to make solar technology economically viable for residential use," added Dr. Castellano. "Prices per watt of solar power have been rising slowly to nearly $5 in early 2007 when it should be falling because of technology improvements. To be competitive, the price must fall below $1 per watt, roughly the cost of carbon power, and we don't see that happening with silicon-based substrates."
