+44 (0)24 7671 8970
More publications     •     Advertise with us     •     Contact us
 
News Article

More Downside than Upside Risk to IC Insights' 2016 IC Market Growth Forecast


Worldwide GDP growth and currency exchange rate fluctuations expected to have major impact on the forecast.

In conjunction with the new 19th annual (2016) McClean Report year-long service, Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, will be presenting half-day seminars in Scottsdale, AZ (Tuesday January 26), Sunnyvale, CA (Thursday January 28) and Boston, MA (Tuesday, February 2). This seminar reviews IC Insights' IC industry assumptions and forecasts for 2016 through 2020.

IC Insights has always believed that an IC market forecast is essentially useless unless one knows the assumptions behind it. Including stock market and financial analysts, there are at least 15 entities that release IC market forecasts.  One way that IC Insights attempts to separate itself from the "pack" is by always including a detailed analysis of the assumptions behind its IC market forecasts.  In that way, our clients can fully understand the forecast and can make their own intelligent assessment of whether they believe the forecast looks good or, in their opinion, is too low or too high.

Figure 1 lists IC Insights' assumptions for its 2016 IC market forecast of 4 percent growth. As depicted, the most likely 2016 IC market scenario is for 2 percent-6 percent growth.  Worldwide GDP is forecast to increase by 2.7 percent in 2016, 0.2 percentage points greater than the 2.5 percent growth rate registered in 2015, which is expected to drive a 2 percent increase in electronic system sales (four points higher than the 2 percent decline in 2015). 

Overall, IC Insights believes the correlation between worldwide GDP growth and IC market growth in 2016 will be very tight, as it has been since 2010.

IC industry capacity utilization rates are forecast to be in the low-90s percent range (with 300 mm fabrication facility utilization expected to be in the mid-90s) in 2016.  Moreover, IC unit volume growth is forecast to grow 5 percent in 2016, slightly better than the 4 percent increase in IC unit shipments registered in 2015, as servers and smartphones experience continued good demand.

A market forecast essentially comes down to unit and ASP growth.  With the expectations for a relatively healthy 5 percent increase in IC unit volume growth, coupled with a 1 percent decline in IC ASPs, a mid- to low-single-digit growth rate in the 2016 IC industry currently appears to be the most likely outcome.

Purdue, imec, Indiana announce partnership
Resilinc partners with SEMI on supply chain resilience
NIO and NXP collaborate on 4D imaging radar deployment
Panasonic Industry digitally transforms with Blue Yonder
Global semiconductor sales decrease 8.7%
MIT engineers “grow” atomically thin transistors on top of computer chips
Keysight joins TSMC Open Innovation Platform 3DFabric Alliance
Leti Innovation Days to explore microelectronics’ transformational role
Quantum expansion
indie launches 'breakthrough' 120 GHz radar transceiver
Wafer fab equipment - facing uncertain times?
Renesas expands focus on India
Neuralink selects Takano Wafer Particle Measurement System
Micron reveals committee members
Avoiding unscheduled downtime in with Preventive Vacuum Service
NFC chip market size to surpass US$ 7.6 billion
Fujifilm breaks ground on new €30 million European expansion
Fraunhofer IIS/EAS selects Achronix embedded FPGAs
Siemens announces certifications for TSMC’s latest processes
EU Chips Act triggers further €7.4bn investment
ASE recognised for excellence by Texas Instruments
Atomera signs license agreement with STMicroelectronics
Gartner forecasts worldwide semiconductor revenue to decline 11% in 2023
CHIPS for America outlines vision for the National Semiconductor Technology Center
TSMC showcases new technology developments
Alphawave Semi showcases 3nm connectivity solutions
Greene Tweed to open new facility in Korea
Infineon enables next-generation automotive E/E architectures
Global AFM market to reach $861.5 million
Cepton expands proprietary chipset
Semtech adds two industry veterans to board of directors
Specialty gas expansion
×
Search the news archive

To close this popup you can press escape or click the close icon.
Logo
×
Logo
×
Register - Step 1

You may choose to subscribe to the Silicon Semiconductor Magazine, the Silicon Semiconductor Newsletter, or both. You may also request additional information if required, before submitting your application.


Please subscribe me to:

 

You chose the industry type of "Other"

Please enter the industry that you work in:
Please enter the industry that you work in: