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Speculation Heats Up

As the summer draws to a close the speculation on the timing of the upturn is hotter than ever. It also seems a big waste for companies to worry about that. Any business course will point out that the time to gain market share is in the downturn. Those companies that hold onto their coins until the upturn is with us will be too late to take advantage. There is enough evidence that the tide has turned. It is just doing it in slightly different phases than usual.

With diversification and the legacy of the 2000 gluttonfest, the industry is not following traditional patterns. The materials and backend industries are already showing positive signs that capacities are rising in both IDM and foundry fabs. This time the corresponding increase in capital tool equipment sales are not as quick to follow. One of the reasons is the glut of unused tools from the 2000 spending spree. There has been a marked increase in second hand and refurbishing services. The mothballs are being cleared away.



With R&D costs for new technology nodes spiralling, coupled with IDMs announcing they may even skip some processes in which hundreds of millions of dollars have already been invested, there is understandable concern that the industry will not realise the collective responsibilty needed to meet its research requirements. It is possible that the industry's technology progress may significantly slow in the next upturn unless there is a killer application that can create the required enthusiasm for investment.



There is a need for the industry to develop a forum where these issues can be discussed without the threat of losing contracts or partnerships. The next stage of consolidation appears to be coming through a war of attrition as no-one appears to be able to stand up and take responsibility for current concerns.



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