Market Research
The market
researcher sees unit demand and production rates starting to creep upwards.
The imbalance will occur whether or not demand continues to pick up as the
economy recovers or just stalls like last year.
If the current upturn in unit demand is a false signal like last year, ASPs
will again come under heavy pressure leading to reduced revenues and profits
as an oversupply condition develops. But if the expected pickup in orders
comes through for H2 2003 as iSuppli and others expect, shortages in several
commodity semiconductor products will develop as suppliers simply will not
have the installed capacity to meet demand. This is primarily because both
IDMs and foundries have focused capital expenditures on getting new 300mm
fabs off the ground and getting 0.13micron process capacity on line for the
expected up-turn. By contrast, plans to develop sufficient capacity at
0.18micron or larger geometries have been neglected. Leading edge products
based on leading edge processes will be available - but probably will be
difficult to sell because the commodity parts used for the rest of the
system will be in severe shortage.
Response to improved demand could be slow in coming. Semiconductor equipment
makers are operating with bare-bones staffing and resources. Deliveries will
simply be stretched out if a spike in orders appears. Much of the industry's
used equipment has already been installed in or is heading towards China.
Lean inventory levels up-stream in the supply chain at the end of 2002
sparked a replenishment move. This allowed chip companies to reduce excess
inventory by $1bn in Q1 2003. Chip suppliers now hold 92% of the $300mn in
excess inventory still in the channel.
Strategy Analytics concludes that Motorola, Infineon and STMicroelectronics
continue as the Top Three IC vendors in the automotive market. These
companies collectively hold 28% of a global market that grew by 6% to
$11.5bn in 2002. Motorola SPS gained its No.1 status with a 13.4% market
share, followed by Infineon (8.2%) and ST (6.6%).
All three companies grew their automotive revenues in 2002, preserving their
relative market rankings and each making modest market share gains. In 2003,
the market researcher believes that Renesas Technology, formed in April 2003
from combining the semiconductor business units of Hitachi and Mitsubishi,
could be chasing ST for the No.3 place.
The 6% automotive dollar value revenue growth compares with around 2% for
the total semiconductor market that was rebounding from a fall of 32% in
2001. The automotive semiconductor market declined by less than 2% in 2001.
In-Stat/MDR believes that sales of optical MEMS into segments other than
telecommunications could grow at a CAGR of 15.8% over the next five years.
The burst telecom bubble has greatly diminished commercial expectations for
optical MEMS, but the technology could find new market opportunities in
applications demanding high-quality imaging and/or the use of lasers.
However, it is not as easy as it might seem at first glance to transfer
skills from telecoms to these other markets. Despite the fact that
next-generation imaging systems and optical networking both use MEMS
mirrors, the architectures required for displays are quite dissimilar from
those used for optical switching. As such, the companies involved in optical
MEMS beyond telecom are very different from those that have made a name for
themselves in optical networking.
The biggest application for optical MEMS is in a variety of display
subsystems - including those that are portable, integrated, and wearable.
Other areas benefiting from these devices include bar code scanning,
adaptive optics systems and commercial printing.
Much of the real movement of optical MEMS into markets beyond telecom has
occurred only very recently. While mirror arrays have made the biggest
splash to date, deformable mirrors and micro lens arrays have been quietly
moving into the market.
The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics issued its report on global chip
sales for May 2003. The total for the month was $12.5bn, a 9.9% increase on
May 2002's $11.4bn. By region, Europe increased 9.3% to $2.5bn, Japan 26.1%
to $2.9bn and Asia Pacific 11.7% to $4.7bn. The Americas market languished
with a 6.7% decrease to $2.5bn.
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AngelTech Live III will be broadcast on 12 April 2021, 10am BST, rebroadcast on 14 April (10am CTT) and 16 April (10am PST) and will feature online versions of the market-leading physical events: CS International and PIC International PLUS a brand new Silicon Semiconductor International Track!
Thanks to the great diversity of the semiconductor industry, we are always chasing new markets and developing a range of exciting technologies.
2021 is no different. Over the last few months interest in deep-UV LEDs has rocketed, due to its capability to disinfect and sanitise areas and combat Covid-19. We shall consider a roadmap for this device, along with technologies for boosting its output.
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We shall also discuss electrification of transportation, underpinned by wide bandgap power electronics and supported by blue lasers that are ideal for processing copper.
Additional areas we will cover include the development of GaN ICs, to improve the reach of power electronics; the great strides that have been made with gallium oxide; and a look at new materials, such as cubic GaN and AlScN.
Having attracted 1500 delegates over the last 2 online summits, the 3rd event promises to be even bigger and better – with 3 interactive sessions over 1 day and will once again prove to be a key event across the semiconductor and photonic integrated circuits calendar.
So make sure you sign up today and discover the latest cutting edge developments across the compound semiconductor and integrated photonics value chain.
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