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Gartner Dataquest issued semiconductor capital and equipment spending estimates for 2003 and 2004.

The market researcher expects 7.9% growth in
capital spending this year, reaching $29.9bn. Next year, growth is put at
37.4% giving a total of $41.0bn. For capital equipment spending (excluding
test), growth in 2003 and 2004 are set at 11.0% ($20.6bn) and 38.3%
($28.5bn), respectively. Of this, the wafer fab sector will take in $17.6bn
and $24.4bn in 2003 and 2004, resulting in growth rates of 8.7% and 38.6%.
Packaging and assembly equipment sales are forecast at $3.0bn and $4.0bn for
growth rates of 26.5% and 36.4%.



"On a regional basis, Japanese companies are most aggressively raising
spending this year with a possible increase of 25-30% over 2002, funding its
newly structured ventures," comments Klaus-Dieter Rinnen of Dataquest.
Rinnen also looks to better utilisation rates at the fabs in H2
2003."Overall utilisation should cross the 85% mark," he predicts. The
company's estimates for Q2 are 81% overall and 90% for leading edge
(0.18micron and better). In H2, leading edge utilisation should reach 95%.
Foundry revenues are expected to grow 23% this year.



Wafer demand is coming from the consumer and PC sectors, the research
company says. A PC upgrade cycle is expected to emerge in H2, although it
may start out slowly.
The current year will also be the first in which 300mm equipment will
account for the majority of tools sold. By 2005, the 300mm sector will
represent 70% of equipment revenues.



IC Insights issued a mid-year update to its IC unit shipment forecasts for
2003 and 2004. At 90.3bn and 103.9bn units, respectively, 2003 and 2004 are
both expected to see a 15% increase. Previously, the market researcher was
predicting an 11% growth in 2003 unit shipments. Sales, however, are
forecast to increase only 13% in 2003 to $136.4bn. This is less than IC
Insights' previous forecast of a 15% increase in sales in 2003.



Technology analyst CIR claims that the market for wireless LAN (WLAN)
chipsets will expand from $938mn in 2003 to $1.7bn in 2007. Chipsets for
WLAN switching hubs alone will be worth almost $160mn by 2007. Key drivers
for this growth will be the ability of WLANs to enable business users and
consumers to avoid the high costs of cabling and of moving PCs attached to
conventional LANs. Wireless Local Area Networks also provide business
travellers with broadband access on the fly.



Forward Concepts sees digital signal processor shipments increasing to
$5.58bn compared with last year's $4.86bn. In future years, the market
researcher is forecasting $7.26bn sales in 2004, $9.29bn in 2005, $11.61bn
in 2006 and $13.94bn in 2007. This adds up to a 23.5% compound annual growth
rate over the period.



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