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New Cyclical Order

This year’s SEMICON West show abounded in the usual cliches that purport to define the issues and the quest for the next upturn showed its to be ever more desperate. While everyone looks to the return of “business as usual”, there appears to be a change in the way that the industry will cycle. David Ridsdale reports on a show that had mixed reviews and discovers that the upturn has started but only certain sectors are noticing

The question of ‘if and when' the upturn will commence was met with differing answers depending on whom you spoke to at this year's SEMICON West in San Francisco. Intel and Applied Materials both tried to convince listeners that nothing had changed in the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry and that the current situation was no different from any other time. They appeared to be the only two companies that felt this to be true.



Intel had the largest presence at SEMICON they have ever had and the opening speech made sure everyone knew they were not there to make friends. Sunlin Chou, senior vice president and general manager of Intel's Technology and Manufacturing Group, used his chance to speak at the opening of the show to lambaste the equipment and materials suppliers, stating they have no urgency for next generation technology. The lithography vendors were selected as the worst offenders - Chou maintains that they whine too much and claims that they have not invested enough in next generation lithography. This was of course denied by the lithography vendors who are seeking greater guidance from the IC manufacturers regarding the direction of next generation lithography so that investments can be made more efficiently.



Michael R Splinter, new CEO and president of Applied Materials, also reassured a group of journalists that the process of moving from one technology to the next is no different than it has ever been. This was the one sticky point in a very impressive SEMICON West debut among journalists for Splinter. He made it clear that he is impressing his style on the company and the evidence was there with the Applied employees in a new corporate outfit and the ‘Total Solutions' moniker reduced to part of the new partnership push.



There were very few people on the floor who agreed that nothing had changed. In fact there was quite a bit of animosity towards the Intel comments and the general direction of the industry. The SEMI group itself came in for much of the anger I heard. Participants feel that SEMI has moved too far from its original industry ideals of ensuring that research dollars were spent wisely and did not double up - in other words, to ensure the industry did not end up to where it actually now seems to be. The industry is unsure whether the cost of investment in certain technologies will result in commercial products. It boils down to Moore's Law being diluted due to economic considerations. It seems that the engineers will be beaten by the chequebook and not by a lack of innovation.



Although it was slow on the exhibition floor, it was a different story in the standards and other meetings that go on around the show. There was a flurry of activity and discussion that was lively compared to the pace on the floor. SEMI is to be congratulated on bringing over the best of the Europa show in the form of the MEMS programme and the first Fab Managers Forum for the USA. Both these efforts need a bit of work to achieve the same level as their European counterparts but they were both positively received.



This downturn has brought new issues to the industry that need to be addressed before the excitement of the next upturn sweeps them back under the carpet. R&D costs are beyond most companies and economics, not technology, now determines the future path. SEMI has suffered the excesses of the industry like everyone else and is looking at new ways to ensure they provide relevance and value to all its members.



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