News Article
European sales index falls
European semiconductor sales industry indicator drops after November fall.
Economic research firm e-forecasting.com today announced that the European Semiconductor Sales leading indicator fell in November by 1.1 percent to a reading of 152.6, after falling 1.6 percent in October. The index was set to average 100 in 2000. The indicator, comparable to the company’s other global regional semiconductor industry indicators for North America, Asia Pacific and Japan, is a forward-looking composite index that forecasts six months ahead, on average, business activity in the region for sales for semiconductors.
“The European semiconductor industry leading indicator has fallen the last five readings, this is worrisome. The contraction for the industry at this point is on part with the 2—1 and downturn and also the contraction felt during the late 80s into early 90s,” said CEO Maria Simos. The semiconductor leading indicator’s six month growth rate fell 6.4 percent in November 2008, after going down 4.8 percent in October 2008. Consecutive negative values in the six-month growth rate predict an end to an economic expansion and the beginning of an upcoming recession.
Two of the seven components that make up the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the European market improved in November: US Monetary Conditions, Yield Spread and European Short-term Interest Rates. The five components that had a negative contribution to the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the European market were: Productivity Barometer, US Manufacturing; Productivity Barometer, European Manufacturing; Non-EU Demand Prospects, Top-10 partner-countries; Change in Profit Margins, US Semiconductors and Orders to Inventories Ratio, US Electronics.
“The European semiconductor industry leading indicator has fallen the last five readings, this is worrisome. The contraction for the industry at this point is on part with the 2—1 and downturn and also the contraction felt during the late 80s into early 90s,” said CEO Maria Simos. The semiconductor leading indicator’s six month growth rate fell 6.4 percent in November 2008, after going down 4.8 percent in October 2008. Consecutive negative values in the six-month growth rate predict an end to an economic expansion and the beginning of an upcoming recession.
Two of the seven components that make up the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the European market improved in November: US Monetary Conditions, Yield Spread and European Short-term Interest Rates. The five components that had a negative contribution to the leading indicator for semiconductor sales in the European market were: Productivity Barometer, US Manufacturing; Productivity Barometer, European Manufacturing; Non-EU Demand Prospects, Top-10 partner-countries; Change in Profit Margins, US Semiconductors and Orders to Inventories Ratio, US Electronics.
