News Article
DRAM to see 2H surge
According to a report from IC Insights the DRAM market to witness large quarterly growth in 2H09 but the annual forecast remains negative.
After reaching a revenue low point in 1Q09, the DRAM market is forecast to show outstanding quarterly growth throughout the balance of the year, as shown in Figure 1. The market for DRAM memory is forecast to surge in the second half of 2009 as capacity tightens, ASPs increase, and system demand begins to recover.
Sequentially, the DRAM market is forecast to decline 5% in 1Q09, to $4.2 billion. Thereafter, IC Insights forecasts quarterly growth to $4.9 billion (17%), $5.9 billion (21%), and $6.8 billion (15%) to finish the year. DRAM sales in 4Q09 are forecast to be 63% higher than in 1Q09. It is interesting to note that even with the strong quarterly gains, the 2009 DRAM market is forecast to finish 12% smaller than in 2008. For the year, IC Insights forecasts the DRAM market to be $22.3 billion, down from $25.2 billion in 2008.
With several DRAM vendors eliminating their 200mm wafer fab capacity and with Qimonda and possibly other DRAM vendors filing for bankruptcy, DRAM supplies will tighten and more closely align with demand as the year progresses. The result will be DRAM average selling prices that are stable at the very least, or that quickly ramp up. Since the beginning of the year, spot prices for some versions of 512Mb and 1Gb DRAM devices have increased as much as 40%.
All other memory segments are forecast to show a similar growth pattern in 2009, but not nearly the same magnitude as DRAM. For example, the 4Q09 market for NAND flash memory is forecast to be 16% greater than the 1Q09 NAND flash market. On an annual basis, the NAND flash market is forecast to be 24% smaller than in 2008.
The DRAM growth figures show that depending on one’s perspective, the 2009 DRAM market can be viewed either as one that will decline 12% or one that will finish 63% larger than it started. Though the annual market growth for DRAM looks dim, it is good to note that 1Q09 is likely to be the bottom for this market in the current downturn.
Sequentially, the DRAM market is forecast to decline 5% in 1Q09, to $4.2 billion. Thereafter, IC Insights forecasts quarterly growth to $4.9 billion (17%), $5.9 billion (21%), and $6.8 billion (15%) to finish the year. DRAM sales in 4Q09 are forecast to be 63% higher than in 1Q09. It is interesting to note that even with the strong quarterly gains, the 2009 DRAM market is forecast to finish 12% smaller than in 2008. For the year, IC Insights forecasts the DRAM market to be $22.3 billion, down from $25.2 billion in 2008.
With several DRAM vendors eliminating their 200mm wafer fab capacity and with Qimonda and possibly other DRAM vendors filing for bankruptcy, DRAM supplies will tighten and more closely align with demand as the year progresses. The result will be DRAM average selling prices that are stable at the very least, or that quickly ramp up. Since the beginning of the year, spot prices for some versions of 512Mb and 1Gb DRAM devices have increased as much as 40%.
All other memory segments are forecast to show a similar growth pattern in 2009, but not nearly the same magnitude as DRAM. For example, the 4Q09 market for NAND flash memory is forecast to be 16% greater than the 1Q09 NAND flash market. On an annual basis, the NAND flash market is forecast to be 24% smaller than in 2008.
The DRAM growth figures show that depending on one’s perspective, the 2009 DRAM market can be viewed either as one that will decline 12% or one that will finish 63% larger than it started. Though the annual market growth for DRAM looks dim, it is good to note that 1Q09 is likely to be the bottom for this market in the current downturn.
