Meanwhile ASPs rebound
- Analog ASP up 10% compared to Dec ’08, the highest since Apr ‘07.
- MPU ASP up 23% compared to Dec ‘08, the highest since Sep ‘08.
- MCU ASP up 5% compared to Dec ‘08, the highest since Jun ‘08.
- 8-bit MCU ASP up 22% compared to Dec ’08, the highest ASP in over two years.
- 32-bit MCU ASP up 9% from 4Q08 average, the highest since Apr ‘08.
- Logic ASP up only 2% compared to Dec ‘08, but first time above $2.00 in over two years.
- DRAM ASP up 5% compared to Dec ‘08, which was lowest point for DRAM ASP in over two years.
- Total Flash ASP up 11% compared to Dec ‘08, the highest since Jun ‘08.
- NAND Flash ASP up 17% compared to Dec ’08, the highest since in Jun ‘08.
- Total IC ASP up 4% compared to Dec ’08, the highest four-week month ASP since Nov ’07!
According to IC Insights it is too early to say with certainty if IC ASPs have reached their low points, but the compnay firmly believes that IC ASPs will rebound throughout 2009 and into 2010. Several conditions are lining up throughout the industry that suggests ASPs will begin to improve, perhaps dramatically, in the coming months.
Some factors that are expected to cause ASP increases include very low IC inventory levels at electronic system producers, any “uptick” in orders will likely put upward pressure on prices; fewer IC suppliers due to mergers and consolidation throughout the industry; 85% factory utilization at 300mm fabs during the current slow period; older, 200mm factories being taken off line; and dramatic reductions in 2009 capital equipment budgets.
These conditions suggest that even a nominal increase in IC units will put upward pressure on prices. That nominal increase could begin in 2Q09 and accelerate in the second half of the year when seasonal demand for electronic systems jumps. Although the 2009 IC market is forecast to register a double-digit decline this year, IC Insights believes IC unit shipments, average selling prices, and market growth will rebound in the second half of this year.
