Positive signs continue
Thesemiconductor equipment market will begin its recovery by October 2009 based onproprietary leading indicators, according to a report entitled “The GlobalMarket for Equipment and Materials for IC Manufacturing,” by The InformationNetwork.
“Our proprietary leading indicators, whichdetermine inflection points in economic activity and which we utilize to showturning points in semiconductor equipment sales have turned positive,indicating that an upturn in equipment sales will begin by October ,” noted Dr.Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network. “We have been usingthese indicators since 2000 and they have proven to be highly quantitativemetrics in every forecast we have given, and in nearly every given year we havenot had to change our forecast midstream. We do not give forecasts in tenths of percentages only to change them 2months later.”
Wesuccessfully predicted in our Press Release of May 27 that Mainland China’scross-straits investment in Taiwanwill help the island country to survive the global crisis and at the same timehelp fix its own IC market. Taiwanhas now reversed its stance and is considering allowing 300mm fabs in China. Theseactions will spur the equipment market in China, which has historically beenutilizing refurbished 200mm equipment in its fabs.
“Objective,concrete evidence comes from the positive activity in our proprietary leadingindicators in the U.S. Both our long and short indicators turned upin late 2008, pointing to a business recovery cycle and giving visibility thatthe days of the recession are numbered,” added Dr. Castellano.
Asthe recession eases, companies and consumers will unleash pent-up demand andmake the electronic purchases driving the semiconductor market, which hasalready turned positive.
