CMP consume less in downturn
The global CMP consumables market has emerged from the 2008-2009 recession with 2010 semiconductor wafer pass demand 20% higher than in pre-recession 2007. At the same time, revenues may not recover to 2007 levels until 2012, according to a new report from Techcet Group, "CMP Consumables 2010 Critical Materials Report," due to recession-induced permanent changes to the market. The CMP combined pad and slurry market this year is forecast to be between $1.36B and $1.57B, rising by 2015 to between $1.85B and $2.4B.
Following the pattern of previous semiconductor downturns, fab engineers took advantage of the slack time to optimize processes with ever-increasing slurry dilution, and to evaluate new polishing pads entering the market. The slurry dilution efforts have focused on selective STI and copper. Copper slurry had been expected to be the primary revenue growth engine before the downturn, so 1:1 and 1:2 dilution takes a significant bite out of the revenue stream. New pad evaluations have resulted in ASP pressure consistent with a robust competitive environment, signalling a break in the long-standing dominance of a single supplier. The introduction of new device structures has called for the commercialization of a variety of new single-layer slurries, each of which carries a fixed product development cost without the multi-layer ROI lure of tungsten and copper slurries.
There are a record 15 slurry suppliers who have established sustainable revenue streams in at least one CMP process segment, although Cabot Microelectronics remains the dominant player with approximately 38% market share overall. Six other slurry suppliers have established shares ranging from 5% to 11%. The supremacy of Dow (Rodel) in CMP pads has been breached by 4 suppliers, each with 3-5% share, although Dow still holds a commanding 78% lead.
In addition to slurries and pads, the report includes a complete market breakdown for all CMP-related consumables and over 100 suppliers. It also has an analysis of the latest ITRS Roadmap updates and the implications thereof for CMP processes and supply chains at 32nm, 22nm and beyond.
Techcet Group, LLC specializes in technical trend analysis and market analysis for the semiconductor, silicon, PV, TFT and related electronics industries. The company has been responsible for producing the International Sematech Critical Material Reports since 2001. Other reports
