IC capacity nears 100%
According to the latest data from Semiconductor Industry Capacity Statistics (SICAS, www.sicas.info ), IC industry capacity utilization was 95.6% in 2nd quarter 2010, up from a revised 93.2% in 1st quarter. Utilization exceeded 95% for the first time since 95.4% in 2nd quarter 2004 and was the highest since 96.4% in 3rd quarter 2000. Utilization was even higher for the most advanced process geometries. For MOS IC wafers using design rules less than 0.08 microns (80 nanometers), utilization was 98.7%. 300 mm MOS IC wafer utilization was 98.4%. MOS IC foundry wafer utilization was 98.9%.
The high utilization levels are due to strong rebound in IC wafer starts and a slow recovery in IC capacity. 2nd quarter 2010 wafer starts were up 64% from the cyclical low in 1st quarter 2009, but are still 6% below the peak in 2nd quarter 2008. IC capacity in 2nd quarter was up only 0.6% from the cyclical low in 3rd quarter 2009. IC utilization levels are likely to remain high at least through the end of 2010. Combined data from SEMI (www.semi.org) and SEAJ (http://www.seaj.or.jp/english/) show shipments of semiconductor manufacturing equipment were $6.9 billion in 2nd quarter 2010, up over three times from a depressed level of $2.2 billion a year ago, but still 25% below the peak of $9.2 billion in 3rd quarter 2007. The increase in manufacturing equipment shipments is not likely to have a major impact on IC capacity until 2011.
Semiconductor Intelligence stated in March 2010 we expected IC industry capacity utilization to exceed 95% by 4th quarter 2010. In June 2010 we moved the 95% target in to 3rd quarter 2010. The target was reached earlier than expected in 2nd quarter 2010. We expect utilization to continue to increase through the end of the year, reaching 96% in 4th quarter.
The chart shows SICAS IC capacity data and the forecast from Semiconductor Intelligence. Total capacity is the sum of the blue and green bars. Utilized capacity (blue bar) is equivalent to wafer starts. Unutilized capacity (green bar) is the difference between total capacity and utilized capacity. The utilization percentage (red line on right scale) is the ratio of utilized capacity to total capacity.
