News Article
Techcet forecasts additional 9% revenue growth for 2011
CMP consumables market rebounds sharply
The global CMP consumables market has recovered from the 2008-2009 recession with a vengeance. 2010 CMP revenues are up 37% over 2009 and have already recovered to 2007 levels, two years earlier than expected, according to a new report from Techcet Group, “CMP Consumables 2011 Critical Materials Report.” The CMP combined pad and slurry market this year is forecast to be $1.65B, rising by 2016 to $1.96B for a CAGR of 4.4% over this period.
The rebound carries with it a redistribution of wealth from tungsten and ILD slurry revenues to copper and STI, indicative both of the growing manufacturing volumes of leading edge copper devices and of the higher ASP of these advanced slurries. In retrospect, several CMP consumable suppliers that are focused on leading edge customers now report that they did not see a dip in revenues or volume through the 2008-2009 recession. This suggests that process development for next generation chip release had continued unabated. The recession afforded fab engineers the time to evaluate a generous sampling of new products being introduced by the supplier community. This has led to the discovery of several "magic triangles," specific combinations of slurry, pad and pad conditioner that result in unexpected, exceptional performance with respect to dishing and defects. Such combinations have likely become apparent only now due to the close scrutiny required to meet process specifications at 45nm and below.
There are a record 15 slurry suppliers who have established sustainable revenue streams in at least one CMP process segment, although Cabot Microelectronics remains the dominant player with approximately 40% market share overall. Six other slurry suppliers have established shares ranging from 5% to 11%. The supremacy of Dow in CMP pads has been breached by Cabot Microelectronics and 3 other suppliers, each with 3-7% share, although Dow still holds a commanding 80-85% lead.
In addition to slurries and pads, the report includes a complete market breakdown for all CMP-related consumables and over 100 suppliers. It also contains an analysis of the latest ITRS Roadmap updates and the implications thereof for CMP processes and supply chains at 32nm, 22nm and beyond.
