Can Nikon or Canon Ever Catch ASML in the Lithography Market?
A decade ago it was a three company race to achieve dominance in the semiconductor lithography market, but ASML has emerged as the clear leader with no signs of relinquishing its lead, according to the report The Global Market for Equipment and Materials for IC Manufacturing, recently published by The Information Network.
As shown in the chart, in 2001 Nikon held a 41.6% share of units shipped, compared to 34.8% for Canon and 22.4% for ASML. In 2011, Nikon's share dropped to 27.8%, Canon's share dropped to 15.2%, while ASML's share increased to 57.0%
In the low-end, the i-line stepper market, which is the least sophisticated lithography technology to make a chip, Canon held a 48.8% share in 2006, Nikon was second with a 34.9% share, while ASML was third with only a 16.3% share.
In 2011, Canon held a 52.9% share, Nikon held a 40.0% share, and ASML held a 7.7% share.
"While the product mix landscape was similar in 2006 in the i-line market, these tools sell for only $5 million," noted Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network. "However, the really big money is in ArF immersion tools that sell for $30 million and more depending on all the bells and whistles."
In 2006, the first year of the immersion market, ASML jumped to a 72.4% share while Nikon held a 27.6% share and Canon did not participate.
In 2011, ASML's share increased to 82.0% while Nikon's share dropped to 18.0%.
"We see a bifurcation in the market that started in 2004, when ASML for the first time led the ArF market with a 37.5% share followed by Nikon with a 33.8% share, and Canon with a 28.8% share," added Dr. Castellano. "It appears the current lithography landscape is set, and the next battleground will have to be EUVL for Nikon or Canon to regain market lead in premier technology."
Indeed, Nikon got off to an early start, shipping one Extended Ultra Violet Lithography (EUVL) tool in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2008, but delayed further development. In mid-2010, Nikon announced its high-volume EUVL tool will "ready" in 2014-2015.
Meanwhile, in 2011, ASML shipped 3 EUVL units with an average selling price of $52 million (equivalent to the price of 10 i-line steppers).
"The monopoly held by ASML in the high-end stepper market (ArF and EUVL) has and will continue to have an impact on semiconductor manufacturers," added Dr. Castellano. "ASML products command a much higher selling price than competitors, and in the semiconductor market advanced lithography is so critical that buyers are willing to pay the higher price."
For example, while ASML held a 57.0% share of unit shipments in 2011, it held an 81.6% share of revenues.
