Semiconductor Sales To Slump in 2012
According to The Information Network, the semiconductor market will remain in the red throughout 2012.
The semiconductor industry in 2012 through June is currently down 5.4 percent compared to the same period in 2011 based on Semiconductor Industry Association's (SIA) 3-month moving average.
Market research firms specialising in the semiconductor sector have different opinions as to what will happen in the next year, although most predict growth.
For this year, the most optimistic forecaster is Semico with a 6 to 8 percent growth forecast. IDC is forecasting 4.6 percent; IHS expects 4.3 percent; while Gartner and Future Horizons forecast 4 percent and IC Insights the lowest at 3 percent growth.
According to The Information Network, all of these organisations are betting on growth of about 10 percent over the next 6 months in order to average out the growth that they predict.
"We beg to differ," noted Robert Castellano, President of The Information Network. "According to our Proprietary Leading Indicators, which we've developed over the past 17 years, the slight drop in the 3-month moving average according to SIA is the start of a downturn that will last over at least the next three months, and in light of increasingly dour macroeconomic forces, at least through 2012. Our PLLs peaked in the current cycle in February 2012, three months ahead of the peak in the SIA numbers in May 2012."
The August 2012 chart from the Information Network indicates a continued decline in PLLs since February followed by the decline in semiconductor sales.
