Lithography sector slows equipment market growth
Growth in 2003 will be only 3.8%, due largely to the poor performance of the lithography sector, which makes up 26% of the total equipment market. The under investment in technology in 2001 and 2002 has begun to reverse itself and will return to normalized levels in 2004. The lithography sector will drop 4.6% in 2003 dragging down the entire market.
The new ITRS roadmap supports smaller geometries, new materials, and an increase in wafer size to 300mm, which will drive the capital spending ratio of device manufacturers back above 20% of semiconductor sales. Demand for 200mm equipment to upgrade existing fabs of top tier customers and foundries to 0.13 microns and copper, combined with dramatically renewed strength in Taiwan should be the drivers of the improved order trend.
“We had anticipated a growth rate of 7.3% for equipment in early 2003, noted Dr. Robert N. Castellano, President of The Information Network. “But semiconductor manufacturers are continuing to under invest despite dramatic growth in its markets in 2003, pegged to increase 14.2%. These companies would rather risk losing market share than spend money that would lower their profits and affect stock prices – a pitiful situation -- which has led us to reduce those forecasts nearly in half to 3.8%.”