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Risk of chip recession has receded says analyst
The threat of a recession in the integrated circuit (IC) industry is becoming increasingly remote, according to market analyst Advanced Forecasting.
The threat of a recession in the integrated circuit (IC) industry is becoming increasingly remote, according to market analyst Advanced Forecasting.
The company says that its IC Recovery Index – which measures the strength of the chip industry - has continued to rise over recent months, suggesting that the industry is set to avoid a major recession.
Supporting this information are recently published industry data that show shipments of IC units ceased to decline for two months (January and February 2005) following a six-month decline from 9.1 billion/month to 8.4 billion/month. Currently, IC units are hovering 0.3 percentage points above the equivalent period in 2004, said the company.
Worldwide shipments of ICs are in line with this assessment. They peaked in November 2004 at US$16 billion per month, and in three months have slowly declined 4% to US $15.3 billion.
"This is a mild decline as compared to the first three months of the 2001 recession during which IC shipments fell 11% from US$16.1 billion to US$14.3 billion," said an Advanced Forecasting spokesman.
Advanced Forecasting also believes that wafer sales and IC units will both reach a bottom in their decline during the second quarter of 2005. Most companies can expect their product line decline to halt sometime this quarter, the firm said.
The company says that its IC Recovery Index – which measures the strength of the chip industry - has continued to rise over recent months, suggesting that the industry is set to avoid a major recession.
Supporting this information are recently published industry data that show shipments of IC units ceased to decline for two months (January and February 2005) following a six-month decline from 9.1 billion/month to 8.4 billion/month. Currently, IC units are hovering 0.3 percentage points above the equivalent period in 2004, said the company.
Worldwide shipments of ICs are in line with this assessment. They peaked in November 2004 at US$16 billion per month, and in three months have slowly declined 4% to US $15.3 billion.
"This is a mild decline as compared to the first three months of the 2001 recession during which IC shipments fell 11% from US$16.1 billion to US$14.3 billion," said an Advanced Forecasting spokesman.
Advanced Forecasting also believes that wafer sales and IC units will both reach a bottom in their decline during the second quarter of 2005. Most companies can expect their product line decline to halt sometime this quarter, the firm said.
