Recovery won’t start until Q405 claims analyst
This was the largest percentage drop since the IPI fell by 8% in August 2001. "Since the IPI is designed to forecast the semiconductor market eight to nine months in advance, this is a predictor of the market conditions for the July/August timeframe," said a Semico spokesman.
"With this latest reading, it now appears that Q305 will be weaker than expected. This would push the start of the recovery out to the fourth quarter of 2005."
Semico believes that the industry is continuing to suffer from over-capacity as a result of the huge 300mm capacity chip makers invested in in 2003 approaching full production. The company also doubts that the inventory surplus has been absorbed.
"Combined with perpetual falling prices in 2005, [these factors mean] the market will struggle to minimise the revenue decline expected this year," said the spokesman.
