Market research
The US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is predicting record chip sales in 2004 of $214bn, an increase of 29.5% on 2003. By 2007, IC revenues are expected to reach $259bn. This last figure is expected to come through essentially a flat market next year, 6.3% growth in 2006 and a 14.2% increase in 2007. The compound annual growth rate for the period is given as 11.8%. The previous record year was 2000 with sales of $204bn.
In Europe, 2004 sales are expected to be $39.6bn, a 22.5% increase on 2003's $32.3bn. This market will follow the world trend of a flat 2005 market, followed by a 5.3% increase to $41.7mn in 2006 and a 13.1% increase to $47.2bn in 2007.
Americas: $32.3bn, 2003; $39.5bn (+22.2%), 2004; $37.7bn (-4.5%), 2005; $39.9bn (+4.2%), 2006; $44.3bn (+12.7%), 2007. Japan: $38.9bn, 2003; $47.8bn (+22.7%), 2004; $47.9bn (+0.2%), 2005; $50.8bn (+5.3%), 2006; $57.1bn (+12.5%), 2007. Asia-Pacific: $62.8bn, 2003; $86.9bn (+38.3%), 2004; $88.6bn (+1.9%), 2005; $95.4bn (+7.7%), 2006; $110.8bn (+16.2%), 2007.
Last week, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organisation issued forecasts for 2004-2006 with a prediction of growth of 1.2% in 2005 and 3.0% in 2006 (Bulletin 559, November 3, 2004). These compare with a 2004 growth forecast of 28.5%.
SEMI's Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) reports Q3 2004 silicon wafer area shipments at 1.05km2 (1.63bn in2), a 24.6% over Q3 2003's 0.84km2. Revenues were increased by 34.3% as a result of higher prices, greater 300mm sales and overall volume demand.
John Kaufman, chair of the SMG and MEMC senior vice-president, comments: "As growth peaked in Q3, silicon manufacturers remain optimistic about the healthy balance of supply and demand." The SMG also reports spot shortages in the quarter for some smaller diameter wafer types.
US market researcher IC Insights is looking forward to another accurate prediction of semiconductor industry growth. The company made a forecast of 27% growth in January this year and the actual figure looks to be in the range 26-28%. In 2003, the market researcher's January forecast was 15%, comparing favourably with the actual 16%. In 2002, a January call of 1% was closely matched by an actual 2% growth.
