Market research
On a preliminary analysis, September 2004 bookings (three-month average) were $1.36bn and billings $1.42bn, giving a ratio of 0.96. The final ratio for August 2004 was 1.04. Despite the gloom, one notes that the bookings and billings figures both represent a 75% increase on September 2003.
"The September data reflects the expected decline in bookings as IC companies have responded quickly to increased inventory levels and become cautious about new spending on equipment," comments Stanley T Myers, president and CEO of SEMI.
VLSI reports a preliminary world book-to-bill ratio for semiconductor equipment of 0.81 in September 2004, based on bookings of $3.94bn and billings of $4.85bn. The market researcher's forecast for October is 0.84 ($3.40bn/$4.07bn). The ratio for August (final) is 0.93 ($3.71bn/$4.00bn).
Front-end capacity utilisation for August-October is given as 91.0%, 88.5% and 86.2%, respectively. VLSI believes that "order activity will remain dismal for the rest of the year". Revenue growth for the semiconductor equipment industry in 2004 is expected to be 55%.
