Market research
Klaus Rinnen, Gartner vice-president for semiconductor manufacturing and design research, expects the down cycle to be driven by "supply and demand issues". He adds: "We do not expect a semiconductor device unit contraction, but rather a slowing in the pace of expansion, which, combined with new capacity additions, would lead to a supply-demand imbalance."
Breaking down the market, 2004 wafer fab equipment revenue is expected to increase 72% while packaging and assembly equipment revenue will grow 49%. The automated test equipment sector is due to rise 52%.
Q3's 94.7% fab utilisation rate is expected to drop below 90% in the seasonally weak Q1 2005. After seasonal improvements in Q2 and Q3 2005, a low of near 80% utilisation is expected in Q1 2006.
SEMI's Silicon Manufacturers Group (SMG) released its consensus forecast for silicon wafer area shipments up to 2007. This year is expected to see 22.6% growth in area from 2003's 3.322km2 (5149mn inches2) to 4.073km2. Over the period the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 8.8%, ending up at 4.646km2 in 2007.
