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Semico Research forecasts that IC revenues will grow 33.8% to $222.6bn this year.
Semico Research forecasts that IC revenues will grow 33.8% to $222.6bn this year. Additional strength in pricing could even push this into the high 30s. However, next year the market researcher sees a decline of 6.8%.

"The 2004 semiconductor market conditions are very similar to what occurred in 2000," says Semico president Jim Feldham. "Both 2000 and 2004 are characterised by strong GDP, an election year, and upgrades and growth in the cellular phone market. New cellular subscribers, smart phones and camera phones are a key factor in driving semiconductor demand."

In 1999 and 2000 revenues increased 18.9% and 36.8%, respectively. Last year's growth of 18.4% already matches the first part of the pattern, to which Semico adds a 34-39% prediction range for 2004.

ISuppli issued revenue rankings for the top five foundries. In 2003, TSMC came top with $5.885bn, UMC second with $2.430bn, ProMOS third with $732mn, Chartered fourth with $553mn and China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International (SMIC) fifth with $365mn. These top five represent 85% of the total revenue for the pure-play foundries. The market researcher expects foundry capacity to expand by 25.9% in 2004 and 23.6% in 2005. By contrast, the entire industry is forecast to increase capacity by just 7.3%.

The Information Network reports that the GaAs IC market increased 32.6% to $2.86bn globally. The market researcher expects further growth in 2004 of 36.8% to $3.90bn. "Cellular phones are driving the market," says Dr Robert N Castellano, president of the Information Network. Other key markets are wireless networking, Bluetooth and RFID.

The market for SiGe ICs is expected to grow from 2001's $197mn to $2.15bn in 2006. These chips will compete with GaAs for the receiver portion of the wireless handset, but GaAs will continue to dominate the RF front-end transmitter. The cellular handset market accounted for 45% of 2003's SiGe market.

The North American equipment industry posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.08 in June 2004, according to preliminary research published by SEMI. Three-month average bookings were $1.61bn, up 123% on June 2003. Billings were $1.48bn, 91% greater than June 2003.

VLSI Research put the global semiconductor equipment book-to-bill ratio for June 2004 at 1.12, based on bookings of $4.91bn and billings of $4.38bn. The forecast for July 2004 is 1.13 ($4.78bn/$4.23bn). The market researcher sees 2004 revenue growth for the sector reaching 68%.

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