News Article
POLYSILICON SHORTAGES FORECAST
Ravenous demand from the photovoltaic sector is putting pressure on polysilicon producers...
Demand for semiconductor-grade polysilicon has reached such high levels that there is likely to be a major shortfall starting this year and extending to 2008, according to US research body Sematech.
Polysilicon producers, already operating at maximum capacity, are struggling to keep up with rising demand, driven in part by the rapidly expanding photo-voltaic market.
While the chip industry currently consumes about two-thirds of manufactured silicon, photovoltaic takes one-third and its appetite is growing at about 30 percent a year.
"Basically, everyone is running everything they have to keep up with silicon demand," said Dave Keck, vice president of silicon manufacturer Advanced Silicon Materials.
"There is not enough polysilicon to support the growth of the photovoltaic industry after 2008, much less the increased needs of the semiconductor industry as it converts to 300 mm wafers."
Keck and other manufacturers are predicting a polysilicon shortage of 4,000 metric tons this year, increasing to 6,000, 12,000 and 20,000 metric tons over the three years.
Gary Homan, marketing vice president at Hemlock Semiconductor Corp, said the silicon industry's options for dealing with the oncoming crunch include incremental expansion of existing facilities, building new plants, identifying new materials for customer use and forming consortia to tackle the issue on a unified basis.
"There is a lot of activity going on in the industry to try to address the polysilicon shortage, but there's still a lot of work ahead," Homan said.
"We are probably underestimating the polysilicon demand," from 300mm wafer conversion, he added, in which case "there are people who will not get in the future."
He also indicated that the supply chain that supports polysilicon production is also facing capacity challenges.
Dan Tracy, senior director of industry research and statistics at SEMI, estimates that producers will turn out 26,000 metric tons of polysilicon this year and 29,000 metric tons in 2006 but this is unlikely to be enough.
"There is strong demand out there for polysilicon, just from the semiconductor industry, which could have 40 300mm fabs in production around the world by 2006," he said.
Polysilicon producers, already operating at maximum capacity, are struggling to keep up with rising demand, driven in part by the rapidly expanding photo-voltaic market.
While the chip industry currently consumes about two-thirds of manufactured silicon, photovoltaic takes one-third and its appetite is growing at about 30 percent a year.
"Basically, everyone is running everything they have to keep up with silicon demand," said Dave Keck, vice president of silicon manufacturer Advanced Silicon Materials.
"There is not enough polysilicon to support the growth of the photovoltaic industry after 2008, much less the increased needs of the semiconductor industry as it converts to 300 mm wafers."
Keck and other manufacturers are predicting a polysilicon shortage of 4,000 metric tons this year, increasing to 6,000, 12,000 and 20,000 metric tons over the three years.
Gary Homan, marketing vice president at Hemlock Semiconductor Corp, said the silicon industry's options for dealing with the oncoming crunch include incremental expansion of existing facilities, building new plants, identifying new materials for customer use and forming consortia to tackle the issue on a unified basis.
"There is a lot of activity going on in the industry to try to address the polysilicon shortage, but there's still a lot of work ahead," Homan said.
"We are probably underestimating the polysilicon demand," from 300mm wafer conversion, he added, in which case "there are people who will not get in the future."
He also indicated that the supply chain that supports polysilicon production is also facing capacity challenges.
Dan Tracy, senior director of industry research and statistics at SEMI, estimates that producers will turn out 26,000 metric tons of polysilicon this year and 29,000 metric tons in 2006 but this is unlikely to be enough.
"There is strong demand out there for polysilicon, just from the semiconductor industry, which could have 40 300mm fabs in production around the world by 2006," he said.
