Semiconductor equipment market flat in 2007
"In our 2006 mid-year forecast we projected the front-end equipment market to grow 17.5% in 2006 and show 0% growth in 2007." notes Dr. Castellano, President of The Information Network. "We see nothing on the horizon that will change our analysis. Enormous quantities of manufacturing equipment ordered over the last several months are now being installed, and have begun affecting semiconductor inventory levels. In addition, the rate of growth for new orders has slowed dramatically and we believe some of the existing orders will be pushed out or canceled altogether."
While the overall lithography market will grow more than 8% in 2007, from a 30.2% growth forecast for 2006, the market for 193nm immersion (wet) tools will double from $600 million in 2006 to $1.2 million in 2007. For the Dielectric Etch sector, growth is directly a function of the changeover to copper damascene processes. The sector will grow nearly 9% in 2007, from a 22.1% growth forecast for 2006. In contrast, the metal and polysilicon etch sectors will drop.
"The conversion to copper damascene by DRAM and Flash manufacturers will be key to the growth of the copper market and hence the Dielectric Etch sector," added Dr. Castellano. "We expect these manufacturers to start significantly increasing the use of copper interconnects in 2007. Already NOR Flash manufacturers have started the migration, and several NAND Flash manufacturers will start using copper in 2007. While Micron Technology has converted to copper interconnects, other DRAM manufacturers will start migrating to copper in late 2007 or early 2008."
