News Article
Investors back thin film technology in solar race as sun goes in on polysilicon supplies
A severe shortage of polysilicon used for solar cell production led to a stampede of startups trying to enter the market using thin film technology, according to the report ‘Opportunities in The Solar Cell Market For Thin Film Technology', recently published by The Information Network.
A severe shortage of polysilicon used for solar cell production led to a stampede of startups trying to enter the market using thin film technology, according to the report ‘Opportunities in The Solar Cell Market For Thin Film Technology', recently published by The Information Network "We've literally had a hundred individuals purchasing our report to use as part of a business plan to enter the market," noted Dr. Castellano, President of The Information Network. "Nearly everyone asked about starting a 20MW production plant for $40 million in equipment, and the vast majority wanted to start a CIGS line.
" Private equity money is drying up, according to the report, for a number of reasons: The much hyped startup Nanosolar is notable for grabbing $120 million to use CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide) technology.
However, the company was started in 2002 and production is scheduled for late 2007 at a former Cisco manufacturing facility in California.
That translates to a development time of more than 5 years. Miasole and DayStar, two other CIGS companies, have recently experienced delays. Miasole is seeing efficiencies of 4 percent to 6 percent, compared to commercial crystalline silicon solar panels with efficiencies between 15 percent and 22 percent. This has soured venture capital firms and other equity investors who had hoped for faster return on investments.
The traditional thin film amorphous silicon cells also have efficiencies of 6%, and plans to introduce a bilayer micromorph structure in 2008 will improve efficiencies to only the 8% - 9% range. But it comes at a cost of additional deposition equipment, some of which is priced at $17 million to handle meter-squared glass.
The very slow migration to higher efficiencies, albeit only 8% to 9%, is also turning away investors. Finally, the Chinese have entered the market with low cost product. A 20MW amorphous silicon plant in the U.S. can cost $60 million in equipment and another $40 million in yearly expenses.
The Cost of Ownership is as high as $2.50 to $3.00 per watt. Currently, the Chinese are advertising sales of completed solar panels for 1.63 Euros or $2.20 per watt, less than the production cost in the U.S. Finally, large publicly traded manufactures are announcing solar cell expansions on almost a daily basis. Production facilities are being constructed with internally generated funds, and these companies already have sales and distribution networks in place, something that would be difficult for a startup. "In our research, the peak of equity investment occurred in December 2006 and has been dropping quickly since then," added Dr. Castellano.
"The promise of high demand for solar energy, which in fact is a reality, enticed too many people with a me-too strategy of low-efficiency solar cell production with the promise of quick rewards."
