Semiconductor slowdown hurting thin film solar companies and equipment suppliers
"In the past two years we have witnessed a stampede of startups entering the solar cell market using thin film technology because of a shortage of polysilicon material used to make crystalline cells," noted Dr. Castellano, President of The Information Network. "During this period, polysilicon manufacturers have quickly ramped up production. With a slowdown in silicon consumption by semiconductor manufacturers, even more silicon will be available to solar producers."
Key points in the solar industry are efficiency and costs. Traditional crystalline and polycrystalline silicon solar panels with efficiencies between 15% and 22% compare to thin film amorphous silicon of 6% to 7%, with the possibility of 10% efficiencies by 2009 using bilayer micromorph structures.
CdTe (cadmium telluride) technology, led by First Solar, is already achieving these efficiencies. While CdTe technology is competitive with crystalline silicon in open area applications such as solar farms in Southwestern U.S. and Europe, there are issues that could impact CdTe technology in the future.
First of all, Cd is extremely toxic. Secondly, there is a severe shortage of Te. Statistically about 160 to 215 metric tons of Te are mined each year, and CdTe solar panels utilise approximately 135 tons per gigawatt of solar power, equivalent to 63% to 85% of worldwide Te production. Thirdly, Cd, but not CdTe is one of six hazardous substances listed in the Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive or RoHS, a European Union environmental regulation that took effect on 1 July 2006. If the EU reviews their RoHS restricted product list and puts CdTe solar panel into the restricted list, the market for CdTe solar panels will vaporise.
