Linx: Political and economic uncertainty smothers silicon demand
A slow global economy is suppressing the demand for silicon wafers, according to the 'Q3 Econometric Semiconductor Forecast' (ESF) from Linx Consulting, an electronic materials consultant to the semiconductor industry.
Continued political and economic uncertainty has dampened the year-on-year forecasted demand growth to only 2.9 percent in 2013. The picture for 2014 is slightly better, but continued underperformance in global markets will keep the semiconductor demand growth between 6.5 percent and 7.0 percent.
The Linx forecast for sales of silicon in Q2 2013 was 2,380 MSI, only 10 MSI from the value reported by SEMI. While moderate growth is predicted for Q3 at 3.6 percent, the outlook for Q4 is down by 7.1 percent, reflecting the seasonal cyclicality.
The Linx ESF was launched in January 2013, and Linx says statistical analysis of past releases has confirmed its accuracy, with only a 1.3 percent error in forecasts one quarter out. Studies published in the latest forecast output show a high correlation between sales of electronic materials and silicon sales.
Consequently, accurate forecasts of silicon demand are crucial for materials and consumable suppliers trying to plan and control their operations.
The Economic Semiconductor Forecast is based on an econometric forecasting model developed by Linx Consulting in conjunction with Duncan Meldrum, a business economist that specialises in business forecasts and analysis from Hilltop Economics. The ESF is claimed to be the only forecasting service in the semiconductor industry that offers accurate forecasts on a monthly basis with major quarterly updates.
Linx Consulting serves the semiconductor, photovoltaics, and electronics industries worldwide. The firm develops unique insights and creates knowledge at the intersection of advanced thin film processing and performance chemicals and materials.
