IC Insights: Semiconductor device unit shipments to top one trillion
As the demand marches on, shipments in excess of one trillion units will be the new "normal" from 2016
Total semiconductor unit shipments (integrated circuits and opto-sensor-discrete, or O-S-D, devices) are forecast to grow annually through the current cyclical upturn and top one trillion units for the first time in 2016.
This is according to forecast data presented in the new 2014 edition of "The McClean Report - A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry".
Semiconductor shipments in excess of one trillion units are forecast to be the "new normal" beginning in 2016.
As seen in the graph at the top of this story, semiconductor unit shipments are forecast to increase to 1,005.8 billion devices in 2016 from 32.6 billion in 1978, which amounts to an average annual growth of 9.4 percent over the 38 year period and demonstrates how increasingly dependent the world is on semiconductors.
From 2008 to 2013, the average annual growth rate of semiconductor units cooled to only 5 percent due to global economic doldrums, but stronger 8 percent annual growth is forecast from 2013 to 2018 as global economies regain momentum and a healthier market prevails for electronic systems.
The strongest increase in smiconductor unit growth over the time span shown inthe figure above 1 was 34 percent in 1984; the biggest decline was 19 percent in 2001 following the dot-com bubble bust.
Semiconductor unit shipments first topped the 100 billion mark in 1987, exceeded 500 billion units for the first time in 2006 and then surpassed 600 billion units in 2007 before the global financial meltdown. The recession caused semiconductor shipments to fall in 2008 and 2009, the only time the industry has experienced a back-to-back decline in unit shipments.
Semiconductor unit growth then surged 25 percent in 2010, the second-highest growth rate since 1978. IC Insights forecasts semiconductor unit growth of 8 percent in 2014, 11 percent in 2015, and 12 percent in 2016, which will result in annual shipments surpassing one trillion devices for the first time in 2016.
Interestingly, the percentage split of IC and O-S-D devices within total semiconductor units has remained fairly constant despite advances in integrated circuit technology and the blending of functions to reduce chip count within systems.
In 1978, O-S-D devices accounted for 79 percent of semiconductor units and ICs represented 21 percent. Almost 40 years later in 2016, O-S-D devices are forecast to account for 74 percent of total semiconductor units, compared to 26 percent for ICs, as shown below.