Growth in electric vehicles sales central to closing emissions gap

Electric vehicles (EVs) will need to increase their combined market share to 16 percent by 2020 to achieve the aggressive fuel economy standards set by regulators, according to new research by the World Energy Council.

While EVs currently represent less than 1 percent combined market share across the world's largest markets for new passenger cars, they should be considered central to any policy and technology portfolio designed to lower transport emissions.

Christoph Frei, Secretary-General of the World Energy Council, said: "Over the past decade, we have seen the emergence of climate change and fuel price volatility as headline issues that keeps energy leaders awake at night. As a result, many countries have set ambitious fuel efficiency targets for passenger vehicles.

"The innovative role EVs can play in meeting these standards make for a pragmatic step in closing the emissions gap by 2020. Looking beyond 2020, EVs and innovation in this area present a major growth opportunity not only for car manufacturers but for the energy sector as a whole."

Over the next five to ten years, passenger vehicle manufacturers will be confronted with regulatory pressure and material penalties, as gains in fuel economy fall behind the required rates of improvement set to address environmental preservation and climate change mitigation.

With a collective annual demand of over 40 million passenger vehicles, three of the largest car markets in the world, the EU, US and China, have all set fuel economy improvement targets of approximately 30 percent for cars from 2014-2020 (as measured in NEDC gCO₂/km), which are expected to exceed forecasted new internal combustion engine (ICE) powered car capabilities.

The World Energy Perspective 2016: "˜E-mobility: closing the emissions gap', published by the Council in collaboration with Accenture Strategy, examines the growth in sales of EVs as the latest technologies to increase average fuel efficiency and meet these stringent economy standards, set in all three markets, referred to as the "EV gap". In the EU, the EV gap is 1.4 million, 10 percent of the estimated 2020 projected passenger sales, in the US, 0.9 million (11 percent) and in China roughly 5.3 million, 22 percent of the projected passenger car sales.

The report, which will be presented in the margins of the G20 Energy Ministers meeting in Beijing by Berat Albayrak, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey, highlights key findings which represent a new frontier and a significant opportunity for the energy sector which will be fully embraced at this year's World Energy Congress in Istanbul, where global energy leaders will address these and similar challenges. 

Murat Mercan, Chair of the 23rd World Energy Congress Organising Committee, said: "These insights are really significant and will help to ensure that our programme will address the right issues at this time of major transition for the energy sector.

We already have over 240 confirmed speakers, from 82 countries, including 44 ministers confirmed for the congress, which will guarantee that the new frontier for the energy sector will be embraced by all."

Stuart Solomon, Managing Director, Accenture Strategy, added: "To help close the emissions gap through more widespread adoption of EVs, utilities need to play a critical role - not only to ensure a reliable electricity supply, given the added pressure from plugging more EVs into an already stressed grid network, but also by making sure that any added demand for electricity to power EVs increasingly comes from clean power sources.

"Utilities can also play a leading role in bringing together key stakeholders from the automotive, technology and home services industries to encourage customer uptake of EVs through more attractive electricity tariff structures, combined with bundled product offers, such as connected car and home solutions. Customers could realise cost and lifestyle benefits as a result, while new revenue streams could benefit industry players."

Electricity demand attributed to new EVs can likely be managed with proper planning by utilities and could be further mitigated at the local level with emerging technologies such as vehicle-to-grid (V2G). Faced with a complex array of policy and technology options including hybrid technology, down-weighting technology, off-cycle credit, aerodynamic improvements and many more, it is important for decision makers to understand the potential impact and feasibility of each option.

Key recommendations of the report include:

● Industry: Vehicle manufacturers will need to respond to regulatory pressures and shift their product portfolio to avoid material penalties. Additionally, there is an opportunity for vehicle manufacturers and utility electricity providers to partner to deliver a superior value proposition to consumers. By 2020 each market would need an additional:

- 3.7 TWh (equivalent to 734,000 homes) in the EU

- 4.5 TWh (equivalent to 367,000 homes) in the US

- 26.2 TWh (equivalent to 17 million homes) in China

● Policymakers: Regulators should examine how proposed fuel requirements can be matched by working with industry through financial and operational incentives in order to achieve desired improvements in CO₂ emissions.

● Consumers: Consumers should provide feedback to regulators and manufacturers by evaluating the economic and environmental benefits of EVs alongside alternative online transportation methods.